LANSING – Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder had called on Democrats and independents to support his campaign, and pundits have said those crossovers helped turned the election for him.

Now, observers are also beginning to look at the voting returns for proof that crossover voting played a major role in Snyder’s victory.

Mark Grebner, founder of Practical Political Consulting and a long-time elections analyst, said just the sheer numbers in each primary showed there had to be some crossover between the parties.

“Even in a bad year there are more Democrats” than the number who showed up in the polls, he said. “There are not that many Republicans.”

Overall, nearly twice as many people voted for the five Republican candidates running for governor on August 3 as did the number voting for the two Democratic candidates (where Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero bested House Speaker Andy Dillon).

But Grebner said there were indications that it was more interest in the overall race, not just the interest in Snyder, that attracted non-Republicans to the Republican primary.

“People got attracted to the race and voted for (Attorney General Mike) Cox, they got attracted to the race and voted for (Oakland County Sheriff Mike) Bouchard,” he said.

If it is any indication, a Gongwer News Service analysis of returns showed more drop-off from the gubernatorial race in the Republican primary than in the Democratic primary.

In a look at a random group of districts, about evenly mixed in political leaning, there was an average 14.6 percent fewer voters in the Republican U.S. House primaries than in the Democratic races. Senate races saw an average 17.8 percent fall-off for the GOP compared to 7.1 percent for the Democrats and the House races saw 20 percent fewer voters on the GOP side compared to 6.2 percent on the Democratic side.

Grebner acknowledged the indications from the numbers, but said the averages would not present an accurate picture of the electorate without also taking into account some of the races involved.

For instance, he said, in the 2nd and 3rd U.S. House districts (two districts the Gongwer sample did not include) there would likely be little fall-off from the gubernatorial race because of the amount of advertising in the race.

And he said the race in the 13th U.S. House District would have kept many who might have supported Snyder from voting in that primary. “Somebody in 13th Congressional District was forced to vote in Democratic Primary or leave Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick as their representative,” he said. “If they wanted Hansen Clarke they had to vote in the Democratic Primary.”

But he said some of his earlier polls showed there was some support for Mr. Snyder in heavily Democratic areas of Detroit.

“I was polling the blackest part of Detroit, areas where 1 percent voted for (former President George W.) Bush,” he said. “Ten percent were voting in the Republican Primary.”

The Gongwer numbers did show evidence of some of those down-ticket races controlling returns. In Ann Arbor, for instance, there were 0.9 percent more votes in the 18th Senate District Democratic Primary, with race between Rep. Pam Byrnes and Rep. Rebekah Warren, than in the gubernatorial primary. On the GOP side, there was a 37 percent dropoff from governor to Senate.

And in St. Joseph County, the 6th U.S. House District race between U.S. Rep. Fred Upton and former Rep. Jack Hoogendyk left only a 0.3 percent drop to that race from governor. The uncontested race on the Democratic side, with Don Cooney also a long-shot for the general election, drew 10.7 percent fewer voters than the gubernatorial race.

On the other hand, in Pontiac, with a heated Republican primary in the 9th U.S. House District between former Rep. Andrew Raczkowski and Paul Welday, falloff from the gubernatorial race was 18.7 percent, while U.S. Rep. Gary Peters (D-Bloomfield Hills) saw only 5.5 percent fewer people vote for him than in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

Grebner said he hoped to do some statewide polling in the coming days to provide better numbers on the crossover votes.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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