LANSING – Detroit’s legislative delegation will take a severe blow as a result of losing 25 percent of its population while Ottawa, Kent, Livingston, Macomb and western Wayne counties will see their representation enhanced.

Now that the state has its Census population data, the chairs of the House and Senate redistricting committees can begin work in earnest.

Rep. Pete Lund (R-Shelby Township), chair of the House Redistricting and Elections Committee said now that the numbers are in, there will still be a bit of a waiting period before the panel would act.

Computer software has been installed, but staff has to be trained to use it, he said. Then they will start plugging in the numbers. Lund did not give a timeline for when the committee could start seeing bills before it, but added he wants to see the job done sooner rather than later.

Sen. Joe Hune (R-Hamburg), chair of the Senate Redistricting Committee, said he expected work to begin soon with the goal of wrapping up the maps before the Legislature concludes regular sessions at the end of June.

With each of the 38 Senate districts to contain roughly 260,096 people and each of the 110 House districts to hold about 89,851, Detroit could lose three seats in the House and one or two in the Senate.

Currently, there are 11 predominately Detroit House districts with another district, the 1st District, which is dominated by the Grosse Pointes and Harper Woods but also contains the far eastern portion of Detroit. The Senate has four districts with big Detroit majorities and a fifth where Detroit is about 40-45 percent of the district.

Those redrawing the maps will have tricky decisions to make. They could attempt to keep four seats with a significant Detroit presence by extending them further into Wayne County. The 5th District, for example, now covers Detroit’s far west side as well as Dearborn Heights and Inkster. That district could be stretched to include additional Wayne County suburbs. Or map-writers could decide to draw three principally Detroit districts with another one that covers portions of Detroit as well as the Grosse Pointes, Harper Woods, Hamtramck and Highland Park (like the current 2nd District does now).

One apparent winner from redistricting should be Sen. Patrick Colbeck (R-Canton Township). His 7th District swelled in population by 12.5 percent and is 18 percent bigger in population than it should be. Republicans, who control the redistricting process, almost surely will lop off the Democratic base of the seat in Downriver, shoring up a competitive seat.

Another winner appears to be Sen. Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights). His 10th District grew by 2.1 percent and is 7.1 percent bigger than it should be. With the district to the south of Rocca, Sen. Steve Bieda’s (D-Warren) 9th District, shrinking, one would expect Bieda’s seat to gain some of Rocca’s seat. One might expect Republicans to move heavily Democratic Roseville out of Rocca’s seat and into Bieda’s.

The Detroit situation could have a huge impact on the politically competitive 6th District. Incumbent Sen. Glenn Anderson (D-Westland) cannot seek re-election in 2014 under term limits, but it seems plausible that Republicans will consider removing Democratic-leaning Redford Township from that seat and attaching it to a Detroit seat.

One challenge for Republicans is the politically competitive 17th District, held by Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe), who cannot seek re-election in 2014. That district needs to drop about 7,000 people and there seems no way to do it other than to clip away the Republican leaning areas of the district in Jackson County. But that could help Sen. Mike Nofs (R-Battle Creek), whose district needs to gain population and could then easily pick up more conservative territory in Jackson County.

Republicans will have another challenge with Sen. Tonya Schuitmaker (R-Lawton) in the 20th District. Her district needs to lose about 9,000 people and with Ms. Schuitmaker living in the tiny portion of Van Buren County in the otherwise Kalamazoo County-dominated seat, Republicans will have to consider whether to no longer have a Kalamazoo County-based seat or Ms. Schuitmaker might have to move.

The district of Sen. Dave Robertson (R-Grand Blanc) also will pose a challenge with it needing to drop some 15,000 people.

One of the biggest challenges will be the district of Sen. Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell). His district needs to clip more than 11,000 people and doing so would mean either splitting Grand Rapids into more than one district or removing solidly Republican suburbs from Hildenbrand’s super-competitive seat.

Republicans should get a boost in the 32nd District now held by Sen. Roger Kahn (R-Saginaw Township). A Democratic-leaning seat, it needs to add about 18,000 people and could do so from Republican-leaning turf, likely from the neighboring solidly Republican 33rd District, which needs to lose about 11,000 people.

Population growth could pose a challenge for Sen. Goeff Hansen (R-Hart), whose competitive district must lose 15,000 people, and it’s hard to conceive of how that would be done without dropping some Republican turf because the bulk of his district is Democratic-leaning Muskegon County.

HOUSE: It seems likely that the seats lost in Detroit will wind up in west Michigan, northern Macomb, western Wayne and Livingston counties.

The 20th, 21st and 23rd districts in outlying Wayne County grew by a combined 45,000 people. That could be trouble for Rep. Dian Slavens (D-Canton Township) who could see part of Democratic-leaning Van Buren Township and Belleville cut from her district, which needs to lose 20,000 people. Slavens lost the Canton portion of her seat in 2010, but won the seat based on her margin in Van Buren and Belleville.

The 32nd, 33rd and 36th Districts in northern Macomb grew by a combined 63,000. That means the 32nd will become a Macomb-only district and lose the St. Clair County portion and push farther south into Macomb. The other growing seats in Macomb also will have to edge southward.

A big winner could be Rep. Anthony Forlini (R-Harrison Township), whose district needs to add about 5,000 people and could be given some Republican-leaning voters from the northern part of the county to shore up his competitive seat.

Kent and Ottawa counties also will prove to be a scramble with the districts in those seats exceeding by a combined 62,000 what they should have, meaning the area will nearly get an whole new district.

Redrawing the two Muskegon County seats will prove a challenge as the Muskegon-based 92nd lost population while the 91st in the suburbs is about where it should be in population.

The redrawing of the trove of politically competitive seats in Washtenaw and Monroe counties also will be closely watched. All have grown considerably, and it’s not self-evident how those seats will be carved up.

One redistricting challenge for the GOP could be the 99th District seat held by Rep. Kevin Cotter (R-Mount Pleasant), which will need to lose 12,000 people and one would assume the lost population would come from the solidly Midland County portion of the seat.

Sen. Morris Hood III (D-Detroit) said the potential for a huge loss in representation for Detroit has alarmed lawmakers. Worries are especially strong that the city may no longer have two U.S. House seats anchored in Detroit.

“There’s definite concern and there’s concern throughout the Detroit legislators of that,” he said.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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