LANSING – The latest forecast for Michigan’s economy from the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics from the University of Michigan projects lower job growth in Michigan for 2014 because of the severity of last winter.

However, the forecast also projects a sharp rise in personal income growth for 2014 compared to 2013, and projects continued growth in jobs and income going into 2015 and 2016.

The RSQE forecast was issued about six weeks before its annual major conference in November in Ann Arbor that provides the more detailed forecast of the national and state economy.

Last November, the RSQE had forecast total job growth of 1.5 percent for Michigan in 2014, which would put it in the range of gaining around 69,000 jobs, roughly the same number it had in each of the two previous years. But it cut that forecast to a net gain of 37,700 jobs.

The primary culprit for the lower growth was the ferocious winter Michiganders endured. The forecast said Michigan lost 10,000 jobs during the winter months. But the economy bounced back with the spring regaining the same jobs it had lost. The forecast even projects a solid growth in jobs by an annualized rate of 2.3 percent during the third quarter that ended in September. But then job growth slows down to 1.4 percent on an annual basis in the fourth quarter, the RSQE said.

That will leave the state with estimated jobs growth in 2014 of 37,700, the forecast said.

But job growth is expected to rebound in 2015 and 2016, adding 62,300 jobs in 2015 and then 75,400 jobs in 2016.

Most the job growth is expected in two industries: in the professional and scientific component and in the trade, transportation and utilities sector.

The forecast expects personal income growth to be 4.3 percent in 2014 (it stood at 1.4 percent in 2013) with income growth of 4.7 percent in 2015 and 4.9 percent in 2016.

Real disposable income is expected to grow at 2.4 percent this year (it declined in 2013) and to grow to roughly 2.8 percent in 2015 and 2016.

The forecast projects inflation to stay relatively low at 1.6 percent, which has been helped by lower energy costs.

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