LANSING – After what one GOP official called the moral equivalent of a landslide victory in the South Carolina primary by former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the February 28 primary in Michigan has taken on a renewed importance in the scheme of presidential politics.

Before Gingrich won the primary with 40 percent of the votes cast, the Michigan primary was seen as an easy win for Michigan native and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Romney campaign officials had officially dampened that attitude, but clearly they were confident of a state win for Romney. But the results in South Carolina make Michigan a must win state for Romney, said one official.

“I guess we are a little more important than we were on Friday,” said Norm Shinkle, chair of the Ingham County Republican Party. As a vice-chair of the state party, he has not endorsed any candidate for president.

Before last week, Romney seemed the likely winner of the Republican presidential nomination. He had narrowly won the Iowa caucuses, or so it seemed, and was the solid winner of the New Hampshire primary.

While officials expected it would be tough for Romney to claim victory in South Carolina, where social conservatives hold much more sway, they were hopeful Romney would keep the results tight.

But first, Iowa officials announced that former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum actually narrowly won the caucuses in that state.

And on Saturday, Gingrich won some 40 percent of the vote in South Carolina compared to Romney’s 28 percent.

According to one GOP strategist in Michigan, that margin of victory is the equivalent of a landslide, and means that Romney must win Michigan to have a solid chance of doing well in the March 6 “Super Tuesday” races in Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.

Florida is the next big race for the GOP on January 31. Unlike other states to this point, it is a winner take all state, where the winner gets all the delegates. After Florida. there are caucuses in Nevada, Minnesota, Maine, Missouri and Colorado before the February 28 primaries in Michigan and Arizona.

Neither Attorney General Bill Schuette, who is chairing the Romney campaign in Michigan, nor his spokesperson could be reached for comment on the changing dynamics of the race.

But Romney has right now one big advantage over Gingrich and Santorum in the state: he has a developed campaign structure.

That structure is now contacting supporters and party activists to boost their efforts to get out the vote, the strategist, who did not want to be identified, said. With a large native Michigan presence in Florida, state activists are also being encouraged to contact Florida voters to generate support, the activist said.

And leading Republicans in Michigan who have not yet endorsed candidates are also being encouraged to come out for Romney, the activist said.

Romney also has the advantage of being a Michigan native and having won the 2008 primary.

Even so, Saul Anuzis, former state party chair and a Romney supporter, said the state is in play.

And the strategist said Romney absolutely must win Michigan to have a chance to win the nomination.

“What’s left of Mitt Romney if he loses Florida and Michigan?” the activist said. Losses in both states would be devastating, and if Gingrch wins both the momentum he enjoys could overrun any campaign apparatus and money Romney has.

Right now, Gingrich has essentially no campaign in Michigan. There are reports that Gingrich’s campaign has hired John Yob of the Grand Rapids-based firm Strategic National Consulting to help lead matters in Michigan, but Yob could not be reached for comment. Yob helped get technology business investor Rick Snyder elected governor of Michigan in 2010.

Shinkle said supporters of U.S. Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) have been organized in the state for some time, though he expected they would not poll well.

Though Shinkle is not endorsing a candidate, he is hoping the February 28 primary results in a record turnout, which he said could help energize voters for the November election.

The striking change of fortunes in the Republican campaign could also mean more presidential candidates roaming the state leading up to the February 28 primary which would both additional media coverage for the state and more business in general.

“It will be good for good TV stations in the state,” said one GOP strategist who did not want to be named. “We’re going to lose half our delegates anyway” because the primary violates party rules by being before March 1. All states that have their primaries before March 1 face the same situation.

All total, it will take 1,144 delegates for a candidate to win the nomination. Fewer than 100 have been allocated so far.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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