LANSING – Michigan’s political outlook was jolted Thursday by the decision by the John McCain campaign to pull resources out of the state, a move that at least for now takes it out of the battleground territory. The decision came as Barack Obama, who held two rallies Thursday, has been increasingly visible and added to his lead in the polls.
Republicans cautioned that tactics frequently change and that Mr. McCain could again shift resources back to Michigan before the November 4 election, but the pullback does raise the stakes for Republicans in the contested state House races, two targeted U.S. House seats and other local races that were expected to be close.
A new poll released early in the day gave Obama a 51-41 lead, the fourth recent poll that gives more than 50 percent. Additionally, Obama has been outspending McCain on TV, with the last study showing the Democrat and his allies spent $954,000 after the conventions to $761,000 on the GOP side.
The McCain campaign is halting television commercials, suspending mailings and pulling the plug on a rally in West Michigan that was to feature vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and another in Plymouth featuring McCain.
Much of the 100 professional staff at state Victory Centers would also be shifted to states deemed more competitive, such as Wisconsin and Maine. The centers would continue to be open, though staffed with volunteers.
Not quite three weeks ago, some opinion polls showed McCain leading Obama in Michigan, but since the recent collapse of the financial industry all polls have showed Obama leading and expanding that lead.
The Arizona senator was last in Michigan more than two weeks ago when he appeared at a town hall with Palin in Grand Rapids. But in the last week, he has been primarily in Washington where his attention was devoted to the financial bailout resolution.
The McCain campaign confirmed reports first posted by Politico.Com, but took great effort to stress that leaving a chief targeted state does not indicate the outlook for the overall campaign has suffered.
Greg Strimple, senior advisor to the campaign, noted Obama has pulled out of at least two states that had been in his 50-state strategy, and that McCain is ahead or tied in states that combined would give him 260 electoral votes, or just 10 shy of victory.
“I’m sure (the Obama campaign) is concerned that as in the primaries where the undecideds broke against them, that is weighing on them,” he said. “The (Republican National Committee) had its best fundraising month last month. We are looking to be very aggressive and turning the page.”
Campaign political director Mike DuHaime said Michigan staff would be moving to Maine and Wisconsin, two states that if they went for McCain would put him over 270 electoral votes. “Operations will be scaled back, but they’re still in place,” he said.
Republican Party Chair Saul Anuzis, who was notified of the decision in the afternoon, said the party’s goals remain unchanged to re-elect Supreme Court Chief Justice Cliff Taylor, electing Republicans to the House where they are at a 58-52 disadvantage, and re-electing U.S. Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R-Bloomfield Hills) and U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg (R-Tipton).
“I have always said that the winds that drive presidential campaign decisions can shift and shift suddenly. I have no doubt the campaign will be back,” Anuzis said. “The infrastructure we built isn’t really affected by decisions like this that come so late in the game. Also, knowing the fickle nature of national campaigns, the Michigan Republican Party had the foresight to open several volunteer centers around the state with the sole mission of focusing on our Michigan candidates.”
He and Tom Shields, president of Marketing Resource Group in Lansing which provides consulting services for Republicans, noted a similar shift occurred in the 2004 election, only to see the Republicans reinvigorate their efforts before the campaign ended.
Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Rochester), speaking prior to confirmation of the changed plans, said, “We still have to rally and fight as hard as we can fight. This state has led the way down to the recession. The economy is the issue in Michigan, it’s still the issue in Michigan. We can’t continue to blame it on George Bush. The proposals here (under Granholm) are not working. We want John McCain in Michigan.”
He said Michigan remains the perfect state for McCain, but added, “I don’t think a national cookie cutter campaign will work here. We haven’t had time to form new arguments and get them out.”
Earlier in the day, Bishop rejected suggestions in a radio interview that McCain’s efforts were slipping compared to his rival, saying, “Quite the opposite. He’s really stepped it up in this state.”
Rep. Brian Calley (R-Portland), chair of the House Republican Campaign Committee, said McCain’s decision would in no way affect how House races are run. He added there are separate people working and volunteering at Victory Centers on behalf of House Republican candidates. He did add that having a candidate at the top of the ticket active in Michigan was complimentary to the activity of House candidates.
But the best thing Mr. McCain can do for Republicans is to win the presidency, Calley argued, and if moving resources to other places is necessary to do that, that’s what must be done.
He added Michigan is notorious for having presidential campaigns tighten up in the home stretch, and he anticipated McCain would be back up on the air with television ads closer to the election.
Ed Sarpolus, a veteran pollster now with the Michigan Education Association, said the shift in strategy is not a surprise. “He’s been unable to get any lead in any poll,” he said. He said McCain had no choice given the slippage and fundraising, which though good could not match that of Mr. Obama. Plus, he said he lost time because of the work on the bailout and he lost ground after the first debate.
“He’s too weak in other states to keep competing in states where Republicans have lost in past elections,” he said. (Michigan has not voted for a Republican for president since 1988). Sarpolus said the change now also allows Obama to switch more of his resources to other states to shore up his position against McCain.
It will now be up to the state party to fill the void, he added. “Who’s going to help the get out the vote effort to help the state House races?” he asked. Mr. Sarpolus suggested the party could shift money toward those efforts.
Party spokesperson Bill Nowling said some resources could be redeployed, though the party is limited in what it can provide directly to candidates.
Shields said the targeting of states by campaigns is always fluid. “That goes to the fact that everybody looks at three-four polls in a row and national issues change. I wouldn’t doubt that other states certainly are closer than Michigan. Michigan has always been a state that Obama had to win and McCain didn’t, but if he did he could really nail this thing down. I’m sure McCain saw the same thing.”
But Shields agreed that the change does potentially hurt Republicans in state House and congressional campaigns. “You need to have an excited electorate. You need to have an electorate motivated to turn out and it’s up to Republicans regardless of what McCain does to get motivated,” he said.
He said the Democrats face something of the same problem, however. “Trust me, if McCain is not here much, Obama is not going to be here much. Both sides then have to worry about turnout and how that affects races down the ballot. It may give local candidates more of a chance to connect on local issues.”
Former U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz of Battle Creek, part of the McCain team in Michigan, said he, for one, is “going to bust my keister for John McCain right up to Election Day.” But he acknowled
