LANSING – If a Michigan ballot proposal is what it will take politically to advance a measure for new transportation funding, the chances of doing so have grown much slimmer now that one would face voters in 2014, House Minority Leader Tim Greimel says.
Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe) and Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer (D-East Lansing) acknowledged last week what was seemingly inevitable – that it was too late to assemble a deal on roads to meet the August 29 deadline to place a proposal on the November ballot.
Barring an improbable decision to schedule a special election on the proposal on a different date later in 2013, voters instead would face the issue in 2014 – when all 148 legislative seats are up for election. From the moment Governor Rick Snyder put a major emphasis on raising $1.2 billion in new roads revenue in early 2013, his team and the issue’s supporters said the longer it took for the Legislature to act and the closer the elections became, the less likely the prospects for success.
There are major obstacles to a vote in 2014. In November, when the highest turnout would occur, Greimel said he anticipated many legislators would be reluctant to put anything on the ballot at the same time they and the governor are on the ballot. In August, when the statewide primary takes place, there will be several hotly contested legislative primaries and the ballot question on whether to dedicate part of the use tax toward local governments as part of personal property tax reform.
Turnout will be low in February or May, and there would be the added cost of holding a special statewide election, Greimel said.
“I am very skeptical of putting anything on the ballot in February or May when there will be a substantial additional cost just to hold such a special election,” he said. “Just in general, for any ballot proposal on any topic at any point in time, I think it’s important that there be high turnout so the outcome reflects the true will of the people. Holding any election in February or May risks having low voter turnout.”
As has been the case for months, Snyder and top legislative leaders continue to focus on a plan with a few key pillars. Gasoline purchases would no longer be subject to the 6 percent sales tax, but the gasoline tax would be increased, either through a percentage of the price or by increasing the existing 19 cents per gallon tax to raise most of the $1.2 billion for roads. Then, to make up the nearly $1 billion lost be ending the sales tax on fuel, the sales tax would rise from 6 to 7 percent to ensure schools and local governments, which get most of the sales tax revenue, are kept whole.
Democrats have put a major focus on adding education funding to the mix in negotiations. The funds could be found through any number of mechanisms, all of which are fraught with political challenges.
Any proposal amending the Constitution, as increasing the sales tax would do, will require Democratic votes in the House, where 73 votes are needed for the required two-thirds majority and majority Republicans have 59 votes. Although Senate Republicans have a two-thirds majority of 26-12 in the Senate, they would surely need some Democratic votes with some GOP members expected to vote against placing a sales tax increase on the ballot.
Asked about the possibility of finding a solution that did not involve a ballot proposal, Greimel said: “I’ve always been open-minded, and I’ve always been willing to talk with colleagues on both sides of the aisle about how best to solve the problem of our state’s crumbling roads in a fair and equitable way. I remain committed to having bipartisan discussions to try to figure out the best way forward.”
Ari Adler, spokesperson for House Speaker Jase Bolger (R-Marshall), scoffed at the notion that the chances of doing a ballot proposal on roads are dimming.
“You can always find an excuse for not doing something, but being in leadership means sometimes you have to make a tough decision and go with it,” he said. “I think it’s too early to talk about what comes next when we haven’t finished talking about all the proposals that are on the table already and while the door is still open for proposals from others. The House Democrats like to say no and walk away from a problem and it would be better if they would learn to work with people and develop a solution.”
Bolger still harbors some hope of working out a deal before the August 29 deadline to put a proposal on the November ballot, Adler said.
“I don’t know that he would totally agree with that,” he said of the sentiment voiced last week from Senate leaders that a deal in time for the November ballot was not possible. “The speaker’s been told many times that something can’t be done and that has never stopped him from trying.”
Amber McCann, spokesperson for Senate Majority Leader Randy Richardville (R-Monroe), said there is no question a major, controversial policy proposal becomes more difficult the closer an election gets, but Richardville is not ready to take the ballot proposal option off the table.
“From the majority leader’s perspective, a ballot initiative is still something he’s willing to talk about,” he said.
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