LANSING – Despite inconsistent sales trends this summer, Michigan Retailers reported the highest level of optimism since 2004 in the future outlook component of the June Michigan Retail Index, which rose to 79.3 on a 100-point scale.
There doesn’t seem a reason to be optimistic – MRA president and CEO James Hallan said Michigan Retailers have seen weak months followed by solid ones, and vice versa, as well as factors such as the state’s unemployment rate increasing to 8.7 percent from 8.4 percent and highest-in-the-nation gasoline prices all in June.
More baffling about the optimism is that 40 percent of retailers recorded declines in sales as compared to June 2012 when only 31 percent reported decreased sales. Thirty-four percent increased sales this June and 26 percent saw no change. Combined, that makes for a seasonally adjusted performance index of 47.7, down from 54.9 in May and down from 58.6 in June 2012.
Even so, 63 percent of retailers expect sales between July and September to increase over the same period last year, while 8 percent project a decrease and 29 percent no change, the MRA said. Seasonally adjusted, that outlook comes to 79.3, up from 76.6 in May and the highest since November 2004 when it was 80.4.
The Index gauges the performance of the state’s overall retail industry, based on monthly surveys conducted by MRA and the Federal Reserve. Index values above 50 generally indicate positive activity; the higher the number, the stronger the activity.
June sales excluding autos, gasoline and building materials also softened nationally, increasing 0.15 percent from May, the U.S. Commerce Department charted. That increase is the weakest since January.
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