LANSING – Governor Rick Snyder appears to be solidifying a consistent lead over his Democratic opponent, Mark Schauer, in two polls that came out Tuesday showing a developing trend of Snyder leading Schauer with a percentage outside the margin of error.
In both polls, one by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group, and the second by the Glengariff Group for The Detroit News, the majority of those polled also said they thought the state’s economy was beginning to head in the right direction.
The MRG poll also showed those polled giving Snyder his highest job approval rating since he took office, with 55 percent approving of his job while 40 percent disapproved. The Glengariff poll showed that 54 percent of those polled approved of Snyder’s job, while 41 percent did not.
However, in neither poll did Snyder’s lead go over 50 percent, and both polls showed a continuing large number of people saying they were undecided a month out from the election.
In the Glengariff poll, Snyder leads Schauer by nearly 8 percentage points. In the MRG poll, his lead over the Democrat is slightly more than 5 percentage points.
Both polls were conducted of 600 likely voters with margins of error of 4 percentage points. The Glengariff poll was conducted from October 2-4. The MRG poll was conducted from September 30 to October 1.
The Glengariff poll showed Snyder backed by 44.9 percent while 37.1 percent favored Schauer. It also showed 3.4 percent of the respondents saying they were backing a third party candidate, and 14.7 percent who said they were undecided.
In the MRG poll, Snyder was backed by 45.7 percent of those polled to 40.5 percent support for Schauer. Another 4 percent of those polled said they would support a third party candidate, while 9.9 percent were undecided.
Both polls show that Schauer has just a 1 percentage point lead over Snyder among women voters, which has dwindled from earlier polls.
And both polls show Snyder favored by 50 percent of the men polled. The Glengariff poll shows Schauer is favored by 38 percent of the men asked, and in the MRG poll he is favored by 38 percent of the men questioned.
The MRG poll showed Schauer is leading Snyder by 1 percentage point in the Detroit media market, but trails Snyder in every other market. Mr. Snyder’s biggest lead is in the Upper Peninsula where he is backed by 56 percent of those polled to 31 percent for Schauer.
In late August, Schauer actually pulled ahead of Snyder in some polls, though still within the margin of error. Most polls since then have shown Snyder ahead, as he began running television ads, but within the margin of error, meaning the race was an essential dead heat.
In the last several weeks as Michigan’s unemployment rate dropped and as Snyder grew tougher in his response to Democratic attacks on his education funding history, his polling numbers have started to pull ahead and above the margin of error.
Tom Shields, president of MRG, a Republican firm, said improved job approval and favorable/unfavorable ratings, as well as greater voter optimism about the direction of the state, have lifted Snyder.
“The underlying numbers are favoring him,” he said. “The underlying mood of the electorate is favorable for an incumbent.”
The brief softening Snyder saw among his Republican base is gone with conservatives solidly behind the governor now, Shields said. And there are signs of some Democratic softening for Schauer, perhaps because of the improvements in Detroit, he said.
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