LANSING – After a week in which both partisans of President Barack Obama and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney drew cheer, observers concur that Obama continues to hold the lead among voters in Michigan. And given the right circumstances, Michigan could return to the top of the heap of battleground states that are drawing the most attention nationally now, some observers said.
Should that not happen, should Obama win the state by 10 percentage points or better, then Democrats could see at least one congressional seat flip their way as well affect the legislative makeup. If Obama were to win by that margin, Republican activists acknowledge they could see a significant change if Obama were to win by that margin. But they don’t think the race is that far out of reach.
And Republicans also hold out hope that Romney will win the state. With the level of organization they say the party has in the state, and with what they say is the enthusiasm party members show, they are confident Romney will take the state for a Republican for the first election since 1988.
Right now, however, the picture looks clearly like Obama is dominating with the electorate. The website Real Clear Politics shows in its summary of public opinion polls in the state that Obama is leading Romney by an average of 10 percentage points in public support, 52 percent to 42 percent.
The range has gone from a 4 percentage point spread to a 14 percentage point spread, but the latest poll included in the average was taken more than a week ago.
Polls are in the field now, but no poll results have been released since Wednesday’s debate – in which everyone concurs Romney won – or Friday’s national unemployment numbers which showed the jobless rate below 8 percent for the first time in 44 months (and which some Republicans dispute).
The debate has given Republicans their biggest burst of enthusiasm in some time. Some of that was knocked back a bit Friday when the jobless numbers came out.
While officially Republicans have remained optimistic, speaking on background some have acknowledged that until the Wednesday debate they were worried some were getting disheartened by Obama holding onto a lead in the polls.
There is no reason for the GOP to be disheartened, said Steve Linder of the political consulting firm Sterling Corporation.
The party is “very, very organized,” he said. “It has a very robust grassroots organization effort” that has generated a significant door -to-door and literature effort. “This is bigger and more organized that I’ve seen in a long time,” he said.
He said he did not pay attention to polls, and it was his sense the race is a “horse race” right now that either side could win. And while the debate fired up supporters, he said there was no reason anyone should think the jobs numbers are helping Obama.
Whether the national jobless rate is 8.1 percent as it was in August or 7.8 percent, “it’s high and it’s been chronically high,” Linder said.
Linder says on November 6, Romney will win Michigan.
One Democrat who spoke on background said Republican-expressed optimism does not square with GOP actions in the state.
The Romney campaign is not spending any real campaign money in the state, at least for television ads which would indicate it sees the state as winnable, the activist said. And while Republican vice presidential candidate U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan is scheduled to come to the state, there have been almost no other visits by top campaign surrogates to attract Republicans although New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will attend a fundraiser in Novi on Saturday.
Michigan voters seem secure right now in voting for Obama, the activist said.
Bernie Porn with the Lansing polling firm of EPIC/MRA said he expects Romney to get some bounce off the debate, but Obama will likely continue to hold onto the lead he has enjoyed so far.
One thing working to his advantage both in Michigan and in Ohio is the public view on the auto bailout, Porn said. Romney’s message that the industry went through the kind of controlled bankruptcy he thought it should is not resonating with the electorate, he said.
If the election were held today, he said, Obama would win, and if he were to win by 54 percent or 55 percent that could give him some coattail effects, Porn said. The race in the 1st U.S. House District could be very close (between Republican U.S. House Rep. Dan Benishek and Democrat Gary McDowell) , and possibly even in the 3rd U.S. House seat (between Republican U.S. House Rep. Justin Amash and Democrat Steve Pestka) could the race be close under those circumstances.
Tom Shields of Marketing Resource Group doubted Republicans would face that problem. He said Obama is leading right now, but the race is more of a single-digit contest.
Michigan is a second-tier battleground state, Shields said, and the race could get more intense here if one campaign or the other feels they have to drop their effort elsewhere.
Shields also acknowledged that the auto bailout controversy is playing big in both Michigan and Ohio. But Romney could and should do better in Michigan because he is a native of the state, Shields said.
And if Republicans sense Ohio is beyond their reach, they will switch their focus to Michigan, he said. Michigan is a state Democrats feel they have to win and forcing them to put more effort in Michigan could take away their efforts in other critical states, he said.
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