EAST LANSING – Even more than the city’s fiscal woes, education and employment levels of Detroit’s population will make the city’s long-term economic recovery more difficult, a Michigan State University economist argues in a recently published paper.
Compared to other cities of similar size, Detroit is burdened with a smaller percentage who have either high school degrees or college degrees, the paper by Ronald Fisher said, as well as fewer people in the overall workforce.
And while the city is seeing some significant upturn in its downtown, Fisher said, “the focus on downtown commercial development might profitably be expanded upon in three directions. One obviously is putting the current city residents to work, reducing unemployment and increasing income. … The other two directions involve attracting new city residents rather than simply more commuters.”
While Detroit’s economic woes have hectored residents and the state for decades, it drew international notice when the city filed for bankruptcy. “Some wonder how the difficulties of the city could have reached this degree, whereas others are concerned that Detroit’s bankruptcy may harbinger similar actions by other local governments. In fact, the Detroit case is both more complex than often assumed and relatively unique compared to other older, central cities,” Fisher wrote.
His paper also points out that the city’s metro area has remained relatively stable in terms of overall population. But whereas in 1960 as much as 45 percent of the region’s population lived in Detroit itself, “today the city is home to only about 15 percent of the region’s residents.”
Of those residents in the city, 59 percent are in population groups considered “dependent,” in other words needing assistance of others. One of the largest single shares of population is children, comprising 27 percent of the total. Another 12 percent are 64 years old or older. And 20 percent of those between 18 and 64 years old are considered disabled.
That leaves 27 percent of Detroit’s population employed, and means that 36 percent of the population lives below the poverty line. In fact, of those between 20 and 64 years old, the prime working years, just 46 percent are employed.
The education statistics for the population also are problematic for economic recovery, with 23 percent of those older than 25 not having a high school degree, and just 12 percent having a bachelor’s degree or higher.
“The city of Detroit exists in a relatively thriving metropolitan area, but the economic condition of the central city is substantially worse than other similar central cities,” he said.
In the Midwest, just Cleveland comes close to the same statistics that Detroit has with 23.7 percent having no high school degree, a slightly higher percentage with bachelors’ degrees, 14.7 percent, and actually a lower median household income at $24,687 compared to $26,098 in Detroit.
In comparison, Pittsburgh (which is often touted as a city with a predominant industry – steel – that struggled and came back) has just 11.2 percent of its residents with no high school degree and 33.1 percent with a bachelor’s degree. In Pittsburgh, 64 percent of the adults are working, compared to 38.2 percent in Detroit, and the median family income is $37,461.
Compared to similar-sized cities across the nation, Detroit’s statistics look even more dire. In Seattle, just 7.6 percent of the population has no high school degree and 56.2 percent has a bachelor’s degree or higher. And the median household income is $60,843. Even Memphis, which has struggled, has a lower number of people without high school degrees, 18.1 percent, and 24.5 percent with bachelor degrees, and a median family income of $34,203.
To turn the city’s economic situation around, Fisher said, “either new training or jobs appropriate to their current background or both would seem necessary.”
Also, “to attract new residents to the city, especially residents effectively prepared for the modern labor market, improvements in public services (especially public safety, education, transportation), housing redevelopment and easing of tax differentials would all seem to be helpful,” he said.
Developments and improvements have to also go beyond the downtown area, he said. In fact, neighborhoods will need a focus as great as that now on downtown to see growth and stability, Fisher said.
While the downtown developments have helped show progress, Fisher said, most of the people working or patronizing the area are suburban residents and for the city to thrive economically it must increase and improve the lot of its residents.
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