LANSING – Republican hopes of finally winning a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan appear in serious danger of vanishing with a raft of new polls in the last week showing Democratic U.S. Rep. Gary Peters opening up a sizeable lead over Republican Terri Land and the decision of the National Republican Senatorial Committee to pull $850,000 in ad reservations it had for the race.
Tuesday had all the hallmarks of a major turning point in the race as it becomes increasingly difficult for Ms. Land to find a path to victory.
It started out with a new poll from The Detroit News and WDIV-TV, the NBC affiliate in Detroit, showing Mr. Peters with a 44 percent to 35 percent lead over Ms. Land. Next came a report from the Washington, D.C., publication The Hill that the NRSC had pulled its ad reservations for Ms. Land. Finally came another poll from Marketing Resource Group, a Republican firm, showing Mr. Peters with a commanding 47 percent to 36 percent advantage.
In the last five polls of the race, taken between September 22 and October 4, using traditional methodology, Mr. Peters has an average lead of 46 percent to 36 percent.
Additionally, Independence USA PAC, the political action committee run by billionaire Republican former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, announced its endorsement of Mr. Peters. It was not yet clear whether the group would air ads for Mr. Peters, but multiple media reports have the group purchasing $2.3 million in ads for Republican Governor Rick Snyder.
Not all hope is lost for Ms. Land, at least not yet.
The super political action committee Ending Spending, the group led by TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts, remains on the air and Republican sources say they expect that to continue. The major wild card is how much more of her family’s money she is willing to commit to the race. She put $3 million from a checking account she jointly controls with her husband into her bid as of July 31.
It is unclear whether the other super PAC in the race, B-PAC, will continue its efforts. It had gone after Mr. Peters as a supporter of President Barack Obama and congressional Democratic leaders.
Still, the overall dynamic is looking difficult for Land.
“It’s slipping away from Terri Lynn Land. She needs something to turn it back,” said Tom Shields, president of the Republican political consulting firm, Marketing Resource Group, which conducted one of the polls released Tuesday.
That survey showed Peters at 47 percent to 36 percent for Land. The last MRG poll in July showed Peters at 47 percent and Land at 40 percent.
The survey was conducted September 30 and October 1 among 600 likely voters via live telephone interviews and has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Democratic groups have successfully driven up Land’s negative numbers through television advertising, leaving her favorable/unfavorable rating at a deeply underwater 30 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable compared to 34 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable for Peters.
Land has problems across the board, Shields said. Peters has piled up a huge 53 percent to 30 percent advantage in the Detroit media market and the two are in a statistical tie in Land’s west Michigan base. Ticket-splitters who lean Republican are going for Peters as well, Shields said. Those are potential persuadables Land needs to win back to have a shot, he said.
“Things are certainly moving in his direction,” Shields said of Peters. “It seems like everything is going against her. She’s not hitting any of her numbers that she needs to.”
TJ Bucholz, a Democratic consultant who is president of Vanguard Public Affairs, said Peters is pulling away.
“I think it’s the beginning of the end for Terri Lynn Land. The news today, especially the NRSC pulling out of Michigan, is bad for her campaign regardless of how they try to spin it,” he said. “They’ve thrown every attack they can think of at Gary Peters and he keeps gaining in the polls.”
Of Tuesday’s developments, Peters spokesperson Haley Morris said they are a sign Peters continues to gain momentum with a message on Michigan families and small businesses.
“That momentum comes even while we are being outspent nearly two to one on TV by the Land campaign and their false and negative attacks that continue to be debunked by independent fact-checkers and news reports,” she said.
The NRSC tried to soften the blow of pulling the ads. In comments to The Hill, it noted that other groups, like Ending Spending, and Land have continue to air ads and still thought Land had a good chance to win.
Land officials sought to pivot the polling news to discussions on debates.
“Gary Peters knows this race is going to go down to the wire, that’s why his campaign would rather debate about debates than actually face Michigan voters and debate the issues,” Land spokesperson Heather Swift said.
However, the Peters campaign released a statement Tuesday saying debate discussions would take place Wednesday and that Peters is hopeful a resolution will be reached then.
“I look forward to continuing debate discussions tomorrow with Land’s campaign. I am confident that we will finalize a debate – for no other reason than this is in the best interests of Michigan,” Peters debate negotiator former Lt. Governor John Cherry Jr. said in a statement.
As far as outside groups, Mr. Peters received potentially a huge lift with the endorsement of Bloomberg’s PAC, which is committing $25 million nationwide to its candidates.
PAC spokesperson Stu Loeser said “stay tuned” when asked if the group would air ads for Peters, saying it generally does not announce ads before they start. Bloomberg appreciates Peters support for women’s rights and gun safety, Loeser said.
“He has a well-deserved reputation in Congress as one of its most independent and moderate leaders,” he said. “He really never hesitates to work across the aisle.”
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