LANSING – A new poll appears to refute suggestions that U.S. Rep. John Dingell is in imminent danger of losing re-election. In the 3rd District around Grand Rapids, the poll showed Justin Amash leading, but the 46-37 split gives him less than a majority and puts Democrat Pat Miles inside the margin of error for the sample.

Dingell (D-Dearborn) has a fairly solid lead over Republican challenger Rob Steele in the most recent EPIC/MRA poll of the 15th U.S. House District, 53 percent to 36 percent.

Rep. Amash (R-Kentwood) has a more tenuous hold on what should be a solid Republican 3rd U.S. House District, the poll showed.

The poll was commissioned by the Detroit Free Press, WXYZ-TV, WOOD-TV, WILX-TV and WJRT-TV and was done through phone interviews as opposed to other polling, which has consisted of automated calls.

Steele was seen favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 19 percent in the district.

The lead for Dingell was generated in part by a sample bias of 50 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republican.

Bernie Porn, president of EPIC/MRA, said the split was the result of random polling, but matches what the district has shown by voter results in recent elections.

“Barack Obama got 65 percent of the vote, while he got about 57 percent statewide,” Porn said. “For (Mr. Dingell) to be in trouble, if that was the case, I think that there would be such a revolt of Republicans winning around the country that Democrats would be meeting in a phone booth.”

A previous robopoll of the district essentially had a split of 36 percent Democrat and 30 percent Republican, and Steele had a small lead in that poll.

In the 3rd District, the poll included a partisan split of 48-37 Republican, meaning Amash has not been able to pick up his base, while Miles has. That leaves the election to turn on independents.

Amash also about split voters on their attitude toward him, with a 42-36 favorable-unfavorable rating, compared to 32-23 for Miles.

“Amash is still likely to win that seat, but there must be something that Amash is doing or believes that is causing some concern among independents and some Republicans,” Porn said. “Because it’s closer than it should be.”

Porn said Miles could win the race, but he, or parties on his behalf, would have to spend a lot of money to overcome the 34 percent of voters who don’t recognize his name. “If there’s a great deal of money spent and some compelling messages why not to vote for Amash, it could happen,” he said.

The polls also gave some indication of the potential results at the top of the ticket.

In the 15th District, despite the Democratic lean of the electorate, Republican Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero 46-40. Snyder leads 54-29 in the 3rd District.

“He’s running well among Democrats, but he’s getting really beaten badly among Republicans and independents in a pretty Democratic district,” Porn said of Bernero’s performance in the 15th District.

In the secretary of state race, Republican Ruth Johnson leads 42-26 in the 3rd District while Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads 42-34 in the 15th District. For attorney general, Republican Bill Schuette leads 45-29 in the 3rd and Democrat David Leyton leads 39-33 in the 15th.

The polls were conducted October 16-19 of 400 likely voters and had margins of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com

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