LANSING – With the 2014 election some nine weeks away, a public opinion poll shows Democrat Mark Schauer slightly leading Governor Rick Snyder. The poll released Wednesday by the Lansing firm of EPIC/MRA shows Schauer supported by 45 percent of those asked, while Snyder is supported by 43 percent.

The margin still means the race is a statistical dead heat, as the margin of error in the poll is 4 percentage points. A total of 12 percent were undecided or would not say who they would support.

But the poll was the first time since April 2013 that EPIC/MRA has shown Schauer with any kind of a lead over Snyder. The last poll of any kind to show Schauer leading was in June 2013 when Public Policy Polling put him ahead 42 percent to 38 percent, but every poll since then has shown Snyder ahead by various margins (lately within the margin of error).

Bernie Porn of EPIC/MRA said the results showed that Schauer had been able to build his name identification with the voters and Snyder had been hammered with an ongoing onslaught of bad news.

The poll was conducted of 600 likely voters from August 22 to August 25, which would include the period when a story about one of Snyder’s chief aides claiming homeowner tax breaks on two different properties in Michigan and Illinois broke and when the two parties held their nominating conventions.

The poll also showed just 41 percent gave Snyder a positive performance rating (in comparison 40 percent who gave President Barack Obama a good performance rating) while 57 percent gave him a negative rating.

Snyder had a 46 percent favorable rating (Mr. Obama had a 47 percent favorable rating) while Schauer had just a 26 percent favorable rating.

A plurality, 46 percent, thought Michigan was headed in the right direction, and 64 percent thought the Michigan economy was starting to improve.

Both candidates had solid support with their partisan bases, though Schauer led Snyder in that by one percentage point, 83 percent to 82 percent, and 43 percent of independents favored Snyder while 32 percent favored Schauer.

Schauer immediately issued a fundraising email, calling the polling results exciting. “But now that Snyder’s allies realize how vulnerable he is, they’re going to spend millions attacking me,” the email said.

A spokesperson for Snyder’s campaign did not return a message, but told the Detroit Free Press that the poll was “garbage.”

Porn said Schauer’s name ID has improved significantly, thanks in large measure to television ads run by the Democratic Governors Association and now Schauer. In July, 44 percent of the respondents still did not know who Schauer was. That is down now to 29 percent.

Snyder has also been hurt by what seems unrelenting bad news over the last two months, Porn said. That included a newspaper series that raised questions on charter schools, controversy over a contract to provide food to prisoners, a couple months of increased unemployment rates and scandals affecting two top administration personnel.

Plus, Snyder has not yet gone fully into campaign advertising mode. He has run just a few ads on his own promoting himself to voters, while the Republican Governors Association has run ads attacking Mr. Schauer. Snyder is expected to start running new ads soon.

The voters are starting to feel more comfortable with Schauer, Porn said.

Despite the poll results, historically incumbent governors have been able to win re-election (former Governor James Blanchard, who lost his 1990 bid for a third term, was the last defeated), Porn said, and Mr. Snyder will likely be able to command the resources needed to run a major advertising campaign.

In recent weeks, Democrats have started to believe Schauer is actually in the race and some nervousness has swept Republicans about the state of Snyder’s campaign.

The Detroit Free Press and several television stations commissioned the poll.

This story was provided by Gongwer News Service. To subscribe, click on Gongwer.Com