LANSING – Despite recent polls showing President Barack Obama with a growing lead in support among Michigan residents over Republican Mitt Romney, the chair of Romney’s campaign in the state said the election would be a horse race with the former Massachusetts governor still having a good chance of winning in Michigan.

“I’m absolutely certain and convinced that in 49 days we are going to get a new president,” said Attorney General Bill Schuette in a telephone conference call with reporters, and “Michigan is one state that is part of the pathway to the presidency.”

While a raft of polls have shown the Democratic Obama favored by likely Michigan voters – the latest coming out on Thursday by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV showed Obama with a 14.2 percentage point lead, 52 percent to 37.8 percent over Romney – Schuette said Michigan was one of “10 or 12 jumpball states” and the GOP campaign was not giving up on Michigan at all.

Michigan is Romney’s native state, and throughout 2012 Schuette has said that if Romney won Michigan – becoming the first Republican to win the state since 1988, then he would win the presidency.

And he said U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin), the Republican vice presidential candidate, will come into Michigan to campaign as will New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Schuette said he could not give details of when those appearances will be.

The Detroit News poll was conducted of 600 likely voters from this past Saturday through Monday. The poll was conducted by the Glengariff Group and has an error rate of 4 percent.

Helping fuel the disparity between the two candidates is a 20-percentage point difference in support for Mr. Obama by women. The polling company said it had never seen such a wide gender difference in Michigan before and if that difference holds through the November 6 election it could create problems for other Michigan Republican candidates.

But at least three other recent polls show Obama leading Romney.

A poll by Marketing Resource Group shows Romney with 48 percent to 42 percent for Romney. The EPIC/MRA poll showed Obama with 47 percent to 37 percent for Romney, and then the CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama with 52 percent support to Romney’s 44 percent support.

Despite that consistency, Schuette said the polls show the overall volatility in the race.

“This is a paycheck election,” Schuette said, one that will be defined by the economy and whether the voters want an economic vision favored by Romney – which Schuette said was marked by greater opportunity – or by that of Obama – which he said called more dependency and greater redistribution.

Schuette clearly played off comments about dependency made by Romney in a Florida fundraising event last May that was secretly taped and released this past week, and to a tape of 1998 comments made by Obama when he was in the Illinois State Senate. Republicans have charged the Obama tape shows he does favor redistributing wealth, although the entire tape seems to indicate Obama was at that time talking about redistributing certain state resources to local groups.

Asked about the tape in which Romney said 47 percent of the population was dependent on government and thought of themselves as victims with no desire to improve their lot in life, Schuette said Romney was “getting too much overtly in the political weeds.”

The battle is for the independent voter, he said, so it should come as no surprise that nearly half the electorate supports Obama just as nearly half will support Romney. The fight will be for those independent voters.

Plus, he argued that Obama sees the nation as having a shrinking economic base while Romney believes the national economic base should grow.

Obama has said in interviews, however, that he believes in a growing economy, and that growth should be led by the middle class.

And while he said he supports helping those that need help, Schuette said most people needing government assistance now want a job with a good paycheck. Pointing to the latest unemployment figures in Michigan, with the August rate at 9.4 percent, Schuette said the public does not want four more years of that kind of economic malaise.

As to the gender gap, Schuette said it would narrow before the election. Concerns about the economy are important to women and the economy will drive the election, he said.

And Schuette said he was not disappointed at all in how the race has gone. “I knew this would be a horse race. I knew it was going to be a battle. This is far different than the race in ’08,” Schuette said. “Obama is desperate to try shake attention from his failed economic policies.”

If Obama were to pull away from Romney in Michigan and win with 54 percent or more of the vote, it could propel Democrats to the 10-seat gain they need to win control of the House.

But a source said Republicans aren’t worried at the moment about Romney’s showing in the polls, even in Oakland and Macomb counties. In some seats, the House candidates are performing above the ticket, and in other areas Romney is above 50 percent and the House candidates are just below him.

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