LANSING – The Michigan House Fiscal Agency announced on Tuesday its revenue estimates for the state through 2016, projecting net revenue in the School Aid and General Fund in the 2012-2013 Fiscal Year to show an increase of $429.9 million from what was projected in May.

The HFA also revised upward its estimate for the two funds by $263.6 million for the current 2013-14 fiscal year and $432.8 million for the 2014-15 fiscal year that begins October 1 – for a combined upward revision of $1.12 billion. That is a bit less than the $1.3 billion upward revision forecast by the Senate Fiscal Agency.

On Friday, the two agencies and the Department of Treasury will meet at the Revenue Estimating Conference to agree upon a number.

The HFA said the federal government shutdown in October constrained economic growth, but a two-year budget deal likely will eliminate uncertainties in the economy linked to the federal government going forward.

The HFA also noted the preliminary net revenue for the School Aid Fund and the General Fund was $20.8 billion in Fiscal Year 2012-2013, a 3.4 percent increase from the previous year.

The estimate found job gains in the state during the past year equaled 59,500, and were concentrated in manufacturing with 19,400 jobs there. Other services housed the rest of the jobs.

Government employment decreased jobs by 4,200, while construction and trade jobs increased by 2,600 and 9,400, respectively.

The projected year-end revenue shows $9.6 billion in the General Fund and $11.3 billion in the School Aid Fund.

It also projects an increase of 1.7 percent in Fiscal Year 2013-2014 to $21.2 billion, with $9.6 billion in the General Fund and $11.5 billion in the School Aid Fund.

In the 2014-2015 Fiscal Year, the estimate projects $10.1 billion in the General Fund and $11.9 billion in the School Aid Fund for total net revenues equaling $22.1 billion.

The year-end General Fund balance is projected to be at $693.2 million and the year-end, and the unreserved School Aid Fund balance is projected to be at $361.3 million.

The estimate calls for modest job gains through 2016. However, the unemployment rate will remain relatively high, the forecast said.

UNEMPLOYMENT: The state’s unemployment rate was 9.1 percent in 2012 and is projected to be at 8.7 percent in 2013. It’s projected to be at 8.2 percent in 2014, 7.3 percent in 2015 and 6.4 percent in 2016.

The national unemployment rate is expected to drop to 7.4 percent in 2013, 6.7 percent in 2014, 6.3 percent in 2015 and 5.6 percent in 2016.

Inflation is expected to stay low during the forecasted period. The Detroit Consumer Price Index for urban consumers is expected to increase by 1.7 percent in 2013, 1.3 percent in 2014, 1.6 percent in 2015 and 1.8 percent in 2016. In 2012, it was at 2 percent.

Light motor vehicle sales are expected to total 15.5 million units in 2013, a 7.2 percent increase. The sales are projected to reach 16 million units in 2014, 16.4 million in 2015 and 16.7 million in 2016.

The forecast says the extent to which the domestic nameplates can retain market share will have a direct impact on the state’s economy. It said the Detroit three auto manufacturers hovered at 44.5 percent of the market in 2013 and will increase slightly through 2016.

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