LANSING – A new forecast published by the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics at the University of Michigan projects continued slow job growth in Michigan through 2014, by which time the state may have recouped just one-third of the jobs it lost during the decade-long recession.
The forecast said that after job growth at a 3 percent rate in early 2012, it will finish the year at closer to 0.5 percent growth, then increase to 1.3 percent in 2013 and 1.6 percent in 2014.
The forecast was issued about one month before the RSQE holds its annual forecasting conference at the University of Michigan. At that conference, a revised state forecast, along with a national forecast, will be issued. RSQE will issue another forecast in January at the state’s Revenue Estimating Conference.
The forecast estimated a “moderate paced but sustained” recovery that will have lasted some five years, beginning in 2010 and into at least 2014.
For 2012, the forecast estimates the state will see an increase of 45,900 jobs, down from 63,800 jobs gained in 2011.
In 2013, the forecast estimates growth of 50,800 jobs, and then another 63,100 jobs in 2014.
That 223,600 jobs will only be about one-third of the total jobs the state lost from 2000 to 2009, the forecast said.
Producing the most jobs during this period will be manufacturing and the large trade-transportation-utilities sectors.
The forecast projected personal incomes will grow by 3.9 percent in 2012, down from 5.6 percent in 2011. Income growth will fall off again in 2013 to 2.8 percent before growing faster again at 4.5 percent in 2014.
Inflation should stay relatively low, however, hovering at 1.8 percent this year, staying at 1.8 percent in 2013 and then climbing slightly to 2 percent in 2014.
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