GRAND RAPIDS ? U.S. light vehicle sales could top 15.5 million units in 2013 nearing auto production levels not seen since 2007, an auto industry consultant said Thursday.
Mike Wall, of IHS in Grand Rapids, in his presentation at the 14th Automotive Suppliers Symposium hosted by Grand Valley State University, said he now estimates 15.2 million units will be sold this year, but with a little tailwind from a rapidly improving U.S. economy, that figure could be pushed to 15.5 million cars and light trucks.
The last time light vehicle sales were above this mark was in 2007, when U.S. auto makers sold 16.2 million vehicles. Production slipped to 13.2 million units in 2008, 10.4 million units in 2009, before climbing slightly to 12.8 million units in 2011 and 14.5 million in 2012.
The points he made in his talk include:
Accelerating sales recovery in the near term due to an increasingly engaged consumer is offset by ongoing fiscal cliff/debt ceiling drama and potential impact from Euro zone uncertainty;
Average vehicle age of 10-11 years provides some sales support as the market works to transition from those who ?need to buy? to those who ?want to buy;?
Improving economy, expanding population, wave of new products and favorable demographic trends bolster the longer term outlook;
Baby Boomers ration auto purchases; priorities shift to retirements lifestyles.
He also predicted GM will again lead the automaker pack in 2013 with sales of 3.232 million units, roughly the same as in 2012. Ford will be second with 3.018 million units, up 6.2 percent from 2012; while Chrysler/Fiat will sell 2.463 million cars and light trucks in 2013, up 3.9 percent from the year before.
The Asian 4 ? Toyota, Honda, Renault/Nissan, Hyundai ? collectively will sell 5.696 million units, up 3.5 percent from 2012.
The German 3 ? Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler ? will sell 1.216 million units, down 5.8 percent from 2012.
Other automakers will account for about 264,000 cars and light trucks, up 15.8 percent from a year ago.
