LANSING – While observers statewide watched the results of the congressional primary in the 13th District and in legislative seats during Tuesday’s primary election, a slaughter took place among local officials in key regions around the state. In almost unprecedented numbers township supervisors and sheriffs were voted out of office in the primary and the question that now remains is what could this mean for the November election.
Clearly, there was an anti-incumbent mood at least involving local officials, observers said, but it was unclear whether that would translate into election-day danger for incumbents in the November election.
Also unclear is what triggered the anti-incumbent mood, although one official suggested latent anger over property taxes may have played a major role. Local issues in some races also had an effect, officials said.
Most those affected by the rout were in executive positions – township supervisors and sheriffs – and one observer posited that the anger was directed at people who the voters thought could take direct action on problems. But another said the evidence for an anti-incumbent mood is clear and that candidates had to encompass and embrace reform in the coming election.
In the Detroit area, 50 percent of township supervisors facing opponents lost their primary elections.
Genesee County is perhaps the most notable indication that voters may be fed up with incumbent lawmakers. In those races, which the Flint Journal called a “Tuesday night massacre,” newcomers unseated nine out of ten incumbent township supervisors.
In Wayne County seven incumbents faced a challenge and four of them lost. Macomb County has more supervisors, 12, but also had seven incumbents challenged and four of them lost.
Oakland County was slightly gentler towards their incumbent supervisors, five of the 12 who were challenged lost. Livingston County was not so kind to supervisors; three out of the four competitive supervisor races favored the challenger.
In terms of sheriffs, those in Saginaw, Antrim, Shiawassee, Grand Traverse, Arenac, Huron, Montmorency and Washtenaw counties were defeated, said Terry Jungel, executive director of the Michigan Sheriffs Association, but the great majority won. A total of 52 sheriffs faced primary opposition.
The anti-incumbent mood was not as fierce going down the ballot in races, but still there were some significant numbers of incumbent losses.
In addition, the anti-incumbent mood did not appear to be universal across the state, but was especially acute in the state’s largest counties.
And the losses hit both Republicans and Democrats.
One political pundit said he doesn’t think the attitude is anti-incumbent as much as “anti-business-as-usual.”
“Those who triumphed surfed the wave of discontent by going with change,” he said.
For example, in Wayne County’s Brownstown Township, Supervisor Arthur Wright survived the wave because he enacted “responsible change” in his district instead of taking his office for granted, one observer said.
Overall in Wayne, Oakland and Macomb counties incumbents in all local races did relatively well, winning about 88 or 90 percent of the races (depending on whether several dozen park commissioners, none of whom faced a challenge, are counted).
Michigan Townships Association Legislative Liaison David Bertram warned against simple conclusions based on the supervisor losses.
“If you get outside of the tri-county area, a few pockets in West Michigan and Flint, after that it seems to be pretty normal average,” he said, also mentioning Washtenaw County as a high-turnover area for supervisors.
Bertram said if the mood of the electorate had been to scrap the current government then township boards would have seen similar brutal results, but they didn’t. “It’s not like entire boards have been turned over,” he said.
In metro Detroit 76 percent of the 109 incumbent township trustees won their primary elections.
But the supervisors in those three counties had just a 50 percent success rate.
Looking at the five most populous counties in the state, Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent and Genesee, there were 42 township supervisors facing an opponent and 26 of them lost.
But if supervisors seemed to take the brunt of the bad news on election night, the results were more favorable for county commissioners, sheriffs and township boards of control.
County commissioners did not fare as poorly. At least nine county commissioners out of 669 lost their shot at saving their seat, three in Kent, two in Macomb and one each in Wayne, Iron, Muskegon and Grand Traverse counties, said Tom Hickson of the Michigan Association of Counties.
Bertram questioned whether the losses of supervisors and others signaled a major mood change among voters, saying if there were real change of mood the electorate would have sent more local trustees packing, while the great majority of trustees stayed.
Local issues were most likely the culprit for the big supervisor turnover, some interviewed said.
Bertram said the low turnout of 19 percent of all voters statewide might have played a role, amplifying those with specific grievances.
He suggested candidates look into local blogs and be aware of any memos affecting their race.
Jungel said he consistently sees 25 new sheriffs each election cycle, no matter the political climate, and expects about two more sheriffs to lose in November, since there are 23 new sheriffs with retirement replacements included. He added that five women had won primaries and that Michigan has not had a female sheriff for nearly a decade.
Hickson said 16 county commissioners left to pursue a state House nomination and 13 won. So together with the extremely high retention rate (about 98 percent) of county office holders, he said commissioners seemed to be getting their message out more effectively.
“At the local level there’s just simply different issues, there could be a particular bias towards or against incumbents,” he said.
But others said the results could presage more profound change at a local level.
Michigan Republican Party Chair Saul Anuzis said Tuesday was a “great night” for his party’s future. “Policies Republicans are pushing are resonating with Reagan Democrats, independents and Democrats,” he said.
The anti-incumbent mood may have touched higher offices in at least one example, when Rep. Ted Hammon (D-Burton) lost his bid for re-election. But in probably the most watched race involving an incumbent, U.S. Rep. Carolyn Kilpatrick (D-Detroit) was able to hold on and narrowly win re-nomination even though her two opponents split 61 percent of vote.
Rep. Lee Gonzalez (D-Flint), whose township supervisor was defeated in the Genesee County debacle, said voters are tired of rhetoric and spin.
He also said there is a sense among some voters that they are not getting good value for their tax dollars.
Candidates have to show the voters that they will listen to them, that they are genuinely concerned with their issues, to avoid losing, Gonzalez said.
Steve Mitchell of Mitchell Research said people were clearly angry over the ongoing economic malaise and high fuel costs and that was “translating itself into a throw the rascals out mood.”
What was particularly surprising, he said, was the margins of some of the defeats. For example, in his home in West Bloomfield Township the incumbent supervisor was defeated by a nearly two to one margin. The opposition was well-funded and ran a lively campaign, he said, but to lose by such a large margin indicate serious problems with the voters.
“If this had been a normal year, the incumbents may have survived,” he said. Primary elections typically attract more sophisticated voters, he said, “and if the sophisticated voters are angry like this it will be in
