NEW YORK – Humans’ historical greenhouse gas emissions have caused the climate crisis the world is in today. But it’s the amount emitted now and in coming years that will determine whether humanity can avert catastrophic climate changes.
That’s the main finding of a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday, which says that even if the world cut emissions to zero today, there would still be a 42 percent chance of hitting 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial levels within a decade. That probability rises to 66 percent if the world waits until 2029 to reach zero emissions.
Nevertheless, achieving zero emissions this decade is shaping out to be a pipe dream at this point, considering global emissions are still climbing, and set to continue for the next several years.
A UN report showed that new and updated pledges on emissions will only cut around 7.5 percent from current rates by 2030. Additionally, China, the world’s largest emitter, is not set to reach zero emissions until 2060.
The study also shows that if the world emitted nothing today, there is only a 2 percent chance of breaching the higher, more severe, 2 degrees Celsius warming threshold. But that too increases to much more likely than not — 66 percent — if the world waits another 35 years before hitting zero emissions.
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