HOUSTON – Drones have the potential to grow into a massive industry within the next decade, but finding a consensus opinion on just how much it will grow is a difficult task.
A report in January 2015 predicted that the commercial drone market would be worth more than $4 billion by 2021, with significant growth in oil and gas mapping applications helping to drive an increase in revenue. A report from the US Congressional Research Service released in September 2015 noted a handful of different forecasts on the industry’s future, with some organizations predicting growth to $14 billion by 2025. Another report released last November predicted that drones would be a $28 billion market by 2022.
Colin Snow, founder and CEO at Skylogic Research, said the aggressive growth projections are commonplace in drone market analysis, and that the proliferation of divergent opinions makes it necessary to view a lot of reports with some degree of skepticism.
“You think you might have the answer, but everybody kind of has a different answer when they try to pin it down,” Snow said. “If one goes about to try and find a proper answer to this question of how big is [the drone market], you see people put charts up. I go to conferences and everyone puts a chart up. So, from the very inception of this industry, we’ve always seen these huge upticks.”
Last July, Skylogic released several reports examining the role drones may play in specific sectors, including surveying and facility construction and inspection. In one report, Snow wrote that Part 107 of the US Federal Aviation Regulations, passed by the US Department of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in June, should allow for easier inspection of various facilities, including oil rigs and refinery flare stacks.
Part 107 covers a spectrum of commercial uses for drones weighing less than 55 lb. It allows operators to fly drones in daylight or twilight with appropriate anti-collision lighting. Drones cannot fly over anyone not directly participating in its operation, under a covered structure, or inside a covered stationary vehicle. The regulation establishes a maximum height for drone flight (400 ft above ground, or higher if the drone is within 400 ft of a structure) and a maximum speed of 100 mph.
Operations in FAA Class G (uncontrolled) airspace are allowed without air traffic control permission, but other airspaces (Classes B, C, D, and E) require approval. Most importantly, operators may request a waiver of most operational restrictions if they can show that their proposed operations can be conducted safely.
The waiver requirement of Part 107 applies to nighttime operations and operations beyond visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS), which Snow said would make thermal inspections more difficult—it is more difficult to decipher warm air escaping from a structure during daylight hours.
