LANSING – An economist with the

University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics said Friday

job growth will likely pull back from its “unsustainable robust

growth” of recent years, but said the unemployment rate will continue to

decline.

Between the second quarter of 2000

and the third quarter of 2009, Michigan lost 858,400, according to George

Fulton, director of the Research Seminar on Quantitative Economics at the

University of Michigan told the Revenue Estimating Conference.

And between the third quarter of

2009 and the fourth quarter of 2017, Fulton projected the state will have

gained 568,900 jobs, or 66 percent of the jobs that were lost.

In terms of specific sectors,

manufacturing could see a major decline from its fourth quarter 2012 to 2013

job growth rate of roughly 21,000 jobs down to 15,000 jobs by the end of the

fourth quarter 2015. It could then be slashed further to growth of 4,000 jobs

between the fourth quarters of 2015 and 2016.

“If manufacturing turns down

substantially, then the Michigan economy can’t absorb that at this point,”

Fulton said. “But if it holds its own, this economy can and does continue

to grow.”

The trade, transportation and

utilities sector also goes from 15,000 new jobs at the end of fourth quarter

2013 down to possibly 10,000 jobs by the end of fourth quarter 2015 (and 9,000

at the end of fourth quarter 2016).

Government jobs are showing an

increase, having gone from a loss of 7,000 jobs at the end of fourth quarter

2013 to a loss of 1,000 jobs at the end of 2015 and a gain of 1,000 jobs at the

end of fourth quarter 2016.

Despite the slowdown in job growth,

unemployment, projected to be at 5.6 percent by the end of 2015, will continue

to decline, Fulton said. In fact, he anticipates it will drop to 5.1 percent in

2016 and 4.7 percent in 2017.

Personal income growth also grows

moderately from 4.2 percent in 2015 to 4.5 percent in 2016 and 4.7 percent in

2017. Real disposable income surges to 4.9 percent in 2015 but then hovers

around 2.1 percent in 2016 and 2.2 percent in 2017.

And there was good news on U.S.

light vehicle sales.

“While growing since 2009,

total sales have fallen short of 16-plus million units between 1999 and

2009,” Fulton said, noting that U.S. light vehicle sales hit 16.4 million

in 2014. “In our forecast, we move up from there.

Vehicle sales could hit 16.8 million

by the end of 2015 and eve cross the 17 million mark in 2016 at 17.1 million.

The Detroit Three’s share of that could be 7.5 million in (44.5 percent) in

2015 and 7.7 million (44.7 percent) in 2016.

“To sum up, there has been good

progress, but more yet to do,” Fulton said.

This story was published by Gongwer

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