DETROIT – While
the talk of the lithium ion battery market had been focused on consumer
electronics and hybrid and plug-in vehicles, the focus has taken a decided turn
in the last couple of years towards stationary storage. For anyone in the
battery market this won’t come as a big surprise. In 2013, California set a 1.3
GW energy storage target to support the grid, starting the race for battery
manufacturers on the stationary side.
The
stationary market is tempting: Bloomberg New Energy Finance is forecasting that
the global installed base of stationary energy storage capacity will be
approximately 31.9 GWh in 2020, up from 5.8 GWh this year. With that kind of
predicted growth, it’s no surprise that the recent conferences on energy
storage have seen greater interest in stationary. To be sure, the automotive
market for batteries hasn’t disappeared. Tesla Motors is proving that the
automotive market can generate significant volume in the battery market, but
even Tesla admits that to justify its Gigafactory, it needs to support the
stationary storage market as well. But what does this market shift mean for the
next generation of batteries?
The target
market for solid state lithium ion batteries has to date largely focused on the
small format consumer electronics batteries. Other “beyond lithium”
technologies have been fueled by the large format automotive applications. The
energy density and cost are the key drivers for both of these technologies –
more energy in a smaller volume package and at a lower cost per watt hour. The
stationary market is a bit different. The package volume is less of a concern
and operating environment may not change dramatically as it may in a car or
cell phone.
In May 2015,
Travis Thompson, a post-doctoral research fellow at University of Michigan,
provided a review of various solid state battery technologies in a webinar
with PlugVolt. This was focused on next generation of batteries to achieve
the USABC
EV 2020 goals, which are automotive targets. But what becomes clear in the
presentation is that the stationary market is going to benefit from multiple
technologies that may be well suited to the built environment. Particularly
environments that have to pass muster from local enforcement such as building
inspectors and fire marshals. A national standard may be established but states
and municipalities have the last word at the local level.
The safety issues around lithium ion batteries in buildings is something that many in the industry believe has been addressed. Yet, Ron
Butler of Energy
Storage Safety Products International tells me that many local fire
marshals remain skeptical of the technology and how to put out lithium fires.
The way to address this could be improved pack design to provide better
containment and suppression, or it could be a leapfrog to another technology.
Again referring to the multiple technologies of the beyond lithium
presentation, Butler points out that a flow battery could potentially be easier
for fire marshals (and insurers) to approve since this becomes a question of storing
known chemicals in well-established vessel technology, but these have their own
issues, as well. All of this is not meant to discount the safety issues faced
within automobiles, but that market is more likely to be regulated by national
standards (the building inspector or fire marshal isn’t inspecting your car
before you can start using it).
The
development of the next generation of batteries will continue to be pushed by
the larger pots of money, such as automotive, stationary, and consumer electronics
buyers. A number of upcoming events in energy storage including The Battery Show and PlugVolt
Battery Seminar, will certainly showcase how diverse the battery market is
becoming. Technology developers are likely to find a nice piece of the pie by
capitalizing on unique aspects within the marketplace and the approval process
to get equipment into buildings, where the safety and electricity codes are
very local issues.
Dave Hurst is Director, Market Analysis for Next
Energy
