NEW YORK – Asteroid 2024 YR4 caused quite a stir last year when it was discovered and originally calculated to have a 3% chance of hitting Earth. Since then models have been refined and while it no longer has a chance of hitting Earth, it does have a 4% chance of hitting the Moon in December 2032.

As that time gets closer, we’ll have a better idea of the probability, but engineers and scientists are also planning for what we would need to do in order to ensure it doesn’t hit our only natural satellite at all. A new paper from NASA and a bunch of other researchers details potential missions and timelines that could make sure the Moon isn’t pummeled with a decent-sized asteroid in less than a decade, Universe Today reports.

A good first question is – why do we care? There are no definitive plans to have a permanent human presence on the Moon by that point, so it wouldn’t directly affect any human activities. Except an asteroid this large could create a huge debris field that would increase the micrometeoroids hitting the Earth by up to 1,000 times the normal background average for a few days.

While that would make for one of the best meteor shows of the last few hundred years, it would also pose a danger to Earth-orbiting satellites and even astronauts on the ISS and other space stations – assuming they’re still there in 2032.

Really, there are only two options to stop that eventuality, if 2024 YR4 is indeed going to hit the Moon – which to be honest is still very unlikely. One option is to deflect it. The other is to destroy it.

NASA video explaining the details of asteroid 2024 YR4

Deflection would be preferred – simply moving its orbital path slightly would ensure it would miss both the Earth and the Moon. The earlier we could do it the smaller nudge would be needed, so it’s better to do it sooner rather than later. However, in order to accurately deflect 2024 YR4, we need to know how much it weighs.

We have a relatively good estimate of its diameter – around 60m give or take 10%. But estimates of its mass depend on its density, which is hard to calculate from so far away. The asteroid’s weight could range from between 51 million kg to over 711 million kg – and the amount of energy needed to move either of those weights a very precise amount is massively different. If a mission to deflect it is based on the wrong mass calculation, it could potentially accidentally change its trajectory to make the problem even worse – including potentially redirecting it towards Earth.

Engineers could design a reconnaissance mission to try to get a better estimate of 2024 YR4’s mass, but the best time to do so would be in 2028 – only three years away. Designing and launching a purpose built mission in that tight timeframe has never been done before, and while it could be for a mission to solve something that’s a high enough threat level, 2024 YR4 probably isn’t it.